In the 1992 movie Candyman, anyone who says the titular character’s name five time in front of mirror summons him and ends up being brutally dispatched. There was a whiff of this at MIPIM this year. Delegates seemed to believe that uttering US president Donald Trump’s name even once would spell disaster. 

But like any looming presence in a horror film, it was impossible to ignore Trump’s influence on the global economy entirely, be that to do with the war in Iran, tariff wars or pretty much anything else for that matter. Instead of referencing actual events, speakers and attendees alike used phases such as “geopolitical turbulence” or - slightly less euphemistically - “events in the Middle East”. 

In a sense, there was little point in discussing US tariffs given that policy coming out of Washington changes with such frequency. But the war in Iran was another matter. After all, the impact on the oil and gas sectors was immediate and has knock on implications for producers across pretty much all sectors, the cost of living and ultimately interest rates, among much else.

The impact was also immediately obvious in terms of the festival itself. I was due to interview senior representatives of a Saudi developer on the Tuesday. The meeting was promptly cancelled after their flight was unable to take off. Frankly, it was impressive how many delegates from the Middle East made it to Cannes at all. 

Then there was Oman, which had taken a prominent pitch near the main entrance to the site and were promoting residential development in the country. On Friday, just as the show was shutting down, two people were killed in the country after drones came down in the Sohar province, according to Oman’s state news agency. 

The reputation that many Middle East states strived to establish as havens from conflict and taxation is degrading by the hour. Oman is just one example. Countries across the region during the show were subject to sustained attacks on their infrastructure and even hotels. The schadenfreude on display in the press towards expats complaining on social media about a lack of government support was understandable on one level but also deeply unattractive.

As usual, a lot of companies and industry bodies had saved their big research announcements for MIPIM and duly produced press releases throughout the week. I read these with increasing bafflement. Yes, some caveats had clearly been added last minute, but many of the releases still referenced “increasing economic stability” and “lowering interest rates”. Those phases may have made sense a month ago but no longer.

I exaggerate for effect, of course. Some delegates were indeed willing to confront the world as it is rather than how they would prefer it to be - and think carefully about what it means for the industry. Bert Hesselink, industrial and logistics developer CTP’s group client relationship director, was a case in point, pointing out that, however uncomfortable it may be to say, strife can also represent an opportunity.

Global insecurity, he said, meant that companies are increasingly nearshoring production and indeed their entire supply chains, a trend to which real estate firms need to respond. “To reduce risk... it makes sense to bring the parts used in producing the final product closer to the factory in Europe,” he said. “We expect this nearshoring of supplies to be a major driver this year.”

Hesselink also pointed to the newly proposed EU Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) as a catalyst for "European protectionism" or, more positively, European autonomy. By incentivising "Made in EU" production, the Act is forcing both European and international firms to establish a physical manufacturing footprint within the bloc to maintain market access.

The impact of the Rearm Europe Act is also now being felt far beyond just heavy weaponry, according to Hesselink.”It’s not only direct impact from the Rheinmetalls and Leonardos... it’s the entire supply chain of parts and logistics connected to it. Governments require local production, which creates demand across Poland, the Czech Republic and beyond,” he said.

Other bright spots include the living sector, which continues to be supported by demographic factors, a lack of supply and overheated markets in major cities. All of this was set out in some detail in the print edition of CRE Media Europe that was distributed at the show. Retail’s bounce back also continues, albeit on a selective basis, after years in the doldrums. Office investment remains subdued, but has moved well beyond the post-Covid nadir. 

Elsewhere, there was some resistance to the idea that concern for the environment in the real estate industry is receding. Since Trump took office for the second time, environmental programmes - and ESG initiatives more generally - have been rolled back by the US government. Many corporations have followed suit. 

However, the general mood I picked up is that this is having little impact on investors’ decision making, especially in Europe. Nobody wants to attract the ire of the Trump administration, but instead of changing practices, companies are changing the language they use. Instead of approaching matters such as addressing climate change or promoting diversity in moral terms, they are instead bigging up the impact on the bottom line. With any luck, the net result will be the same. 

So, while there was a great deal to be gloomy about at MIPIM this year and a lot of ostrich impersonation going on, there were silver linings. In recent years, there have been a series of global events in the weeks ahead of the show - Russia’s invasion of Ukraine being the other prominent example - but markets have a tendency to find a way through. The human cost is another matter entirely and one that requires closer attention.