Commerz Real’s Henning Koch on patience, pricing gaps and real assets 

As the European real estate industry heads into Expo Real 2026, Commerz Real CEO Henning Koch offers a sober assessment of market conditions. 

Henning Koch, CEO, Commerz Real

After a prolonged downturn triggered by interest‑rate increases, geopolitical shocks and a sharp repricing of risk, Koch believes the sector is still working through a recessionary cycle, one that is lasting far longer than many anticipated.

“The mood in the industry is moderate, maybe depressive at times,” he says. “It’s not recovering in the way we all expected last year. We need to be patient for the next couple of years, accept the interest‑rate environment and do business without expecting any particular tailwind.”

Koch maintains that today’s market is defined by unusually low competition. Family offices, private equity and large global funds are selectively active, but traditional institutional investors remain largely absent. Transactions above €200 million are particularly difficult to execute.

“There is liquidity and capital to be deployed,” he notes. “But with the latest interest‑rate trends, pricing expectations have shifted again. The gap between vendors and buyers is even higher than before.”

Commerz Real’s investment priorities for the next 12–24 months reflect a broader reconfiguration of the real assets universe. The firm has been active in clean energy for more than two decades, and Koch sees infrastructure — particularly renewable energy — becoming increasingly interconnected with real estate.

“We are diversifying and focusing on the broader real assets sector,” he says. “Real estate, infrastructure and energy connect more than ever. We also see more capital looking to be deployed into the infrastructure sector at the moment.”

Koch acknowledges that geopolitical risk, refinancing pressure and macroeconomic uncertainty will continue into 2026. But he argues that these factors must now be treated as structural rather than exceptional.

“We need to accept geopolitical risks as something we simply have to factor into our thinking,” he says. “Our focus is on the assets and on asset management - on what we can influence. Real assets remain a strong asset class. In difficult times, they can be a stable component in a portfolio.”

This year, Commerz Real arrives in Munich with a clear strategic identity. “We have shifted from a real estate manager to a real assets and infrastructure manager,” Koch says. “It’s encouraging to see Expo Real also shifting in that direction.”

He expects a more moderate atmosphere at the fair — fewer stands, fewer people and visible cost‑cutting across the industry. But he sees value in the conversations that will take place, and in the alignment between Expo Real’s new infrastructure focus and Commerz Real’s own strategic evolution.