Dutch house prices set for slower growth through 2027

ABN AMRO forecasts continued, albeit more moderate, house price growth in the Netherlands through 2027, following unexpectedly strong performance in 2024 and 2025. 

Residential market in the Netherlands - ABN Amro

After an 8.6% year-on-year increase in 2025, matching 2024's robust growth, the bank projects house prices to rise by approximately 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.
This anticipated slowdown is attributed to modest economic growth, easing inflation, and slightly higher mortgage rates. Nevertheless, rising household incomes and a persistent housing shortage are expected to counteract the impact of increased borrowing costs, maintaining upward pressure on prices.
In contrast to prices, transaction volumes are expected to decline after a record-setting 2025, which saw an estimated 239,000 transactions—a 16% increase from 2024—primarily driven by investor sales of rental properties. ABN AMRO anticipates this exceptional activity will subside, leading to a 1% decrease in transactions in 2026 and a 4% decrease in 2027. This decline is also linked to ongoing limitations in new housing construction.
While potential policy changes, such as reduced mortgage interest tax relief, are under discussion in Dutch coalition talks, ABN AMRO does not expect them to significantly impact house prices in the near term due to implementation complexities. The bank also notes the European Commission's Affordable Housing Plan, which could eventually bolster the mid-range rental sector in the Netherlands.
In conclusion, ABN AMRO believes that income growth and a structural housing deficit will continue to underpin the Dutch housing market in the coming years, even with moderating price growth and fewer transactions.