Dutch logistics: Nearing stabilisation after decade of growth

The Dutch logistics real estate market is expected to stabilise by 2026 after a decade of significant growth.

Logistics investment NL - Savills

From 2016 to 2025, logistics stock surged by 64.7% due to increased trade and centralised supply chains. However, this expansion has led to a projected rise in the vacancy rate to 6.3% by Q1 2026, primarily from newly completed projects.

While occupier demand remains strong, take-up of logistics space fell to 1.7 million sq m in 2025 as businesses delayed expansion and relocation decisions. This doesn't signal a lack of demand, but rather longer decision-making processes and a mismatch in the market.

Looking ahead, the development pipeline is shrinking, with about 1.9 million m2 currently under construction. This is expected to help stabilise the vacancy rate in the medium term, aligning with economic growth.

The Dutch logistics sector continues to attract investors, accounting for 15.2% of total real estate investment volumes in 2025. Prime net initial yields have adjusted from 3.15% in 2021 to 4.75% in early 2026, a result of higher capital costs and market repricing.

Interestingly, investment patterns have shifted. While the Randstad region (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague, Utrecht) dominated logistics investment from 2020-2022, regions like Brabant and Gelderland attracted the majority of investment between 2023-2025. With prices in the Randstad now normalizing, there's renewed institutional interest in key gateway locations such as Schiphol, Amsterdam, and Rotterdam.

Wouter van ’t Grunewold, analyst Market Intelligence at Savills Netherlands, said: “Rental trends show increasing differentiation. While prime logistics locations in strategic corridors continue to perform relatively well, pressure is building on secondary locations. Occupiers are becoming more selective in their location choices as rising costs and evolving supply‑chain strategies influence decision‑making.”

Niek Poppelaars, head of Logistics & Industrial at Savills Netherlands, commented: “Investor appetite for high‑quality logistics assets remains strong, particularly in locations where accessibility, scale and modern specifications align. At the same time, investors remain highly focused on pricing and financing conditions.”