European logistics real estate sees stable rents and modest growth

Garbe Research's latest Garbe Pyramid-Map for mid-2025 indicates that the European logistics real estate market is entering a phase of stabilization and consolidation. 

Garbe Pyramid Map

While rental growth is expected to moderate significantly compared to previous years, it remains positive, with an average annual increase of 1.9% (€0.70/m2) projected from Q2 2025 to Q2 2030. This is a notable shift from the 5.6% annual growth experienced between Q2 2020 and Q2 2025.
Prime rents across Europe increased by an average of €0.06 to €7.42 per square meter/month in H1 2025, a much slower growth rate (0.8%) than in prior years and below the projected 2025 inflation rate of 2.06%.
Rents remained unchanged in 59% of the 121 submarkets examined, while 36% saw slight increases. Only 5% reported falling rents, down from 8% at year-end 2024, indicating a trend towards stabilization.
Central logistics hubs like Munich, Stuttgart, Inner London, Manchester, Paris, Barcelona, and Warsaw are forecast to continue experiencing above-average rent growth (over 2.0% CAGR) due to their strategic importance.
Rental growth varied across countries. Germany saw a €0.06 increase (or just €0.03 without Munich), with some regions experiencing declines. Italy and Spain generally showed positive trends, while growth slowed in the UK and Netherlands.
The average European vacancy rate surpassed 6.6% in Q1 2025, with rapid increases in the UK, Italy, and Slovakia. However, Germany, Spain, and Poland are showing early signs of recovery. Demand differentiation continues, with overall take-up largely matching or slightly below recent levels.
While political incentives like Germany's "Super-AFA" deduction could stimulate the market, their short-term impact is limited. The report concludes that despite slower momentum, the market remains robust, offering opportunities, particularly in well-connected regions with specialized users and high-quality locations.
Tobias Kassner, head of Research & ESG at Garbe Industrial, explained: “The exceptional rent surge of recent years cannot be sustained indefinitely. However, our forecast reveals: Prices continue to be stable, and high-end locations retain their growth upside. We expect many markets to see continued, if more moderate rent growth – driven by structural trends, industry-specific demand and regional dynamics.” 
The Garbe Pyramid Map represents an overview of prime rents and prime net initial yields for the 121 most important logistics real estate submarkets in 25 European countries. In addition, the Pyramid map contains forecasts for the 88 regions that were determined via a collaboration with Oxford Economics.