Geopolitical risks redraw supply chains – Colliers

New research from Colliers indicates that geopolitical instability is fundamentally altering corporate location and supply chain strategies across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA).

Damian Harrington

Companies that rely on fixed or overly concentrated operational footprints are increasingly at risk as global trade, policy, and economic power become more fragmented and rebalanced.

Colliers' report, "Building Resilience: 5 Megatrends Redefining Corporate Real Estate," identifies a "Shifting Global Order" as a primary force reshaping corporate real estate. Rising trade tensions, the reintroduction of tariffs, and a more intricate regulatory environment are challenging long-standing trade partnerships and accelerating the restructuring of global supply chains.

While the rebalancing of economic growth is a worldwide phenomenon—with emerging Asian markets projected to drive a growing share of future growth—the consequences are becoming more immediate for EMEA-based businesses. Decisions regarding location are now influenced as much by geopolitical risk and policy stability as they are by traditional factors such as cost, talent availability, or market access.

Instead of adhering to historical expansion models, many organisations are now revamping their operational frameworks. The report points to an increasing adoption of hub-and-spoke strategies. In this model, core operations, talent, and capital are based in politically and commercially stable areas, complemented by more adaptable, asset-light "spokes" that allow companies to stay close to customers and supply chains while maintaining strategic flexibility.

The research underscores the growing interdependence of real estate and supply chain strategies. Location choices now directly impact lead times, inventory exposure, access to infrastructure, and operational continuity, thereby increasing the stakes for both occupiers and investors as disruptions become more frequent.

Industrial and logistics real estate is central to this reconfiguration. Flexible facilities, bonded options, and third-party capacity are being utilised to absorb shocks and maintain continuity. Conversely, single-market or overly inflexible footprints are proving more susceptible to evolving trade relationships and regulations.

Throughout EMEA, trends like nearshoring and friendshoring are elevating the importance of certain Eastern European regions. Additionally, politically and commercially "friendly" or neutral markets are attracting higher-value strategic functions. Simultaneously, growth centres like India and hubs such as Dubai are gaining prominence within global networks as organisations seek resilience alongside access to future market demand.

Damian Harrington, head of Research, Global Capital Markets and EMEA at Colliers, explained: “The world is changing in a myriad of ways, making business planning much more complex. For corporate real estate leaders, understanding how these geopolitical and trade shifts affect location decisions is critical to supporting growth and resilience in a more volatile environment.”