Selected growth expected for European logistics to 2030 - Garbe

The latest Garbe Pyramid Map, developed with Oxford Economics, indicates that European logistics real estate markets are likely to experience muted momentum and selective growth until 2030. 

Logistics - Garbe

The forecast suggests a noticeable slowdown in rental growth and a stabilisation in yields over the next five years.
Over the past five years (Q4 2020 - Q4 2025), annual rent growth averaged 5.7%; however, this is projected to drop to just 1.9% annually for the next five years. Yields, which rose from 4.6% to 5.7% since Q2 2022, are now showing a trend towards compression and are expected to moderately decline to 5.2% by 2030 across 88 forecast markets. Most European logistics markets are anticipated to see slight yield compression or sideways movement.
Despite a volatile economic and geopolitical environment, European logistics real estate markets are increasingly decoupling from immediate geopolitical impacts. Tobias Kassner, head of Research & ESG at Garbe Industrial, commented: “A fundamental stabilisation of the geopolitical environment that many had long been hoping for is nowhere in sight. However, market players are increasingly coming to terms with the new reality, are abandoning their wait-and-see attitude and have begun to resume trading. Given the market corrections of the past few years, we believe the time for sweeping adjustments has come and gone. Stability is here to stay, and growth is happening – albeit selectively and strongly dependent on location.”
The report emphasises that success in this uncertain market relies on clear strategies, local market knowledge, and consistent implementation. 
Tom Herrschaft, head of Real Estate Management at Garbe Industrial, highlighted: “In a market defined by a high degree of uncertainty, the outcome depends less on the cycle than on the quality of the asset management. Stable cash flows, active contract management and tenant management, along with tight control on the property level, represent the key success factors today.” 
Despite the overall muted dynamics, 45 analysed regions are expected to see prime rents increase by over ten per cent by 2030. Established core markets in Germany, the UK, France, and the Netherlands are showing strong impulses. Munich, in particular, stands out due to strong local demand, limited supply, and economic strength. Yields are cautiously optimistic, with liquid core markets offering the most promising performance where moderate rent growth aligns with stable yields.
The consolidating UK logistics market continues to offer growth potential, driven by Asian e-retailers and demand for large properties in regions like North West England and the Midlands. The defence and aviation industries are also emerging as demand drivers, with limited availability sustaining rents.
The French logistics market is stable with a cautiously positive outlook. Demand is strong from in-store and online retailing, as well as the defence and aviation sectors (especially in Toulouse). There's a shift towards modern, ESG-compliant logistics real estate, with vacancies concentrated in older properties in northern regions.
Kassner concluded: “E-commerce remains a key demand factor, but the same is increasingly true for Asian retailers seeking to expand their footprint in Europe. Changed trade flows, realigned supply chains and the focus on strategic resilience and defence will define the logistics real estate markets for a long time to come and generate decisive impulses.”